[thoughts] On Predicting when Bullion will Return to GLD (FAILED PREDICTION) PLUS a new permanent spreadsheet resource

A number of months ago I predicted the return of some specific GLD bars, and I'm sorry to say they haven't yet returned and statistically there is now less than a 5% chance that they will. So that is a FAIL; my method for detection of unusual GLD withdrawals did not create an accurate prediction. I'm disappointed and it's back to researching that area. I will of course update this article if I ever see them back on the ledger, but because it's outside the three to four month range expected, I'm admitting defeat.

Sunday PM pre-game, 8/31/2014

Greetings friends-

Another month is in the books, and it very much looks like gold's year-long trading range is approaching its long-awaited denouement. The key chart is above ...